Jays face a major decision on Bautista

Baseball Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's safe to say Toronto Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulos had no idea heading into this year that he would have to make an important mid-season decision involving Jose Bautista. With the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline just days away, Anthopoulos will be tempted by many teams to surrender his breakout star.

Prior to this season, few would have pegged Bautista to be an All-Star and lead the majors in home runs. After taking Brad Bergesen of the Baltimore Orioles deep in Monday night's 9-5 victory, Bautista increased his major league-leading homer total to 28, and he also ranks in the top 10 in the American League in RBI (70), walks (56), slugging (.558) and OPS (.915).

He's hitting just .245, but don't lump him into the category of a one- dimensional slugger. Bautista's arm is one of the game's best, not to mention that he's a good fielder at both third base and right field. His seven assists from right are tied with three others for the second-most in the majors, despite playing fewer games at the position than everyone else in the top 10. So why would the Blue Jays trade arguably their best player on the team when he doesn't become a free-agent until after the 2011 season?

There are two ways this question can be answered. The first is obvious; if the Blue Jays get blown away with a trade proposal, likely centered on polished or high-ceiling prospects, then management will strongly consider making a deal. Bautista could help out a number of teams with his bat in the middle of the order, and his versatility at both third base and right field increase his stock even further.

Secondly, Bautista, who is earning a modest $2.4 million this year, will be seeking a big pay raise in arbitration during the off-season. Depending on what direction the franchise chooses to go with respect to payroll, they may not feel inclined to offer Bautista a significant raise, one that could likely net him an extra $5 million on top of his current salary.

The Jays cut payroll nearly $20 million this season, yet have been competitive throughout the entire year and have established important building blocks for the immediate future.

The only real sense in trading Bautista would be if the Jays could receive multiple top-notch prospects from another organization in return for his services, which they won't for a number of reasons. No team is going to overpay for a 29-year-old enjoying a breakout year after being a career .239/.334/.424 hitter.

That said, who made up the rule that players can't begin their prime at age 29?

Bautista has always had the ability to hit the long ball, but not until this year has he finally been given the opportunity to go out and prove it. He doesn't have to worry about whether he will get at bats the next day after a bad game; he knows they'll be there, which is allowing him to continue to find his comfort zone at the plate.

Bautista is better than his career averages indicate. He's just hitting his stride later in his career, and is capable of sustaining it for a couple of more seasons. The Jays can be good enough with him; they don't need to try to get good enough by trading him. If the organization is willing to bring payroll back up to last year's mark (roughly $80 million), the Jays can afford to pay Bautista's pay hike in arbitration and also explore a marquee free agent. While Anthopoulos continues building from within through the likes of the draft and trading for young prospects, he can also go after a prized possession on the market, because the team is strong enough to make a push soon.

Don't fool yourselves, the Jays are not that many years off from competing to the point where a postseason appearance is realistic, if not expected.

In all probability, the 2011 Jays opening day roster will include the likes of top prospects Kyle Drabek (SP), Brett Wallace (1B) and catcher J.P Arencibia, who are all having terrific seasons in the minor leagues. All three were All- Stars, and Arencibia is tied for the minor league-lead with 29 homers.

If Bautista were to play right field for the Jays beyond this year, which he should based on his arm, the only real question mark the team would have for the future would come at third base. Providing Bautista is a piece moving forward, a Blue Jays lineup as early as next year could read like this:

Arencibia (C), Wallace (1B), Aaron Hill (2B), Yunel Escobar (SS), Travis Snider (LF), Vernon Wells (CF), Bautista (RF) and Adam Lind (DH). That leaves the Jays with one hole coming at the hot corner, where Edwin Encarnacion is currently part of the mix, and Jarrett Hoffpauir (Triple-A Las Vegas) has also seen time at this year. That's a team any GM would love to have, regardless of whether your direct foes include the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays.

It's not like the talent begins and ends with the bats either, as the Jays currently have four extremely talented pitchers in Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, and Drabek, the headliner of the Roy Halladay deal, in the minors.

Drabek, Wallace and Arencibia could all provide some modest-to-large return immediately and although Snider has yet to flourish at the big league level, good things may come sooner than most expect.

In a couple of years, the Jays could become the Rays, although they won't have to spend a decade in the basement to accomplish their goals.

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Marlins could start season without No. 2 starter Johnson

JUPITER, Fla. -- The Foorida Marlins are preparing for the likelihood that right-hander
Josh Johnson won't be ready when the season starts April 2.

Grapefruit League action starts Wednesday, but Johnson, penciled in as the No. 2 starter, hasn't even thrown off a mound at full speed since September. He's experienced some soreness in his right forearm.

MySportsbook.com have the Marlins listed with baseball betting lines at +800 to win the NL East this season .

''You guys know the math. If he's not on the hill then he becomes an opening day roster issue,'' manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday. ''We're borderline now.''

Johnson, who finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 2007, was supposed to throw on flat ground Saturday. That was canceled when he woke up with pain.

He played catch on Wednesday with no pain but felt discomfort in a throwing session on Thursday. He's expected to try again Sunday.

''Like we always said from the very beginning, we're going to take it easy on him,'' Gonzalez said. ''He didn't feel right, so we shut him down. We're going to take it back to step one and see where we're at.''

Among the candidates to take Johnson's spot in the rotation are left-hander Chris George and right-handers Yusmeiro Petit and Jose Garcia.

Right-hander Sergio Mitre, who missed most of last season with arm and shoulder problems, also is behind.

With Johnson's status doubtful, Gonzalez said right-hander Ricky Nolasco will stay in the rotation and no longer will be considered a candidate for closer.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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