Just as Well pointed to Arlington Million XXVIII

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/19/2010 - Arlington Heights, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off a second-place finish in last Saturday's Dixie Stakes at Pimlico, Just as Well is on the road to this year's Arlington Million at Arlington Park.

The 1 1/4-mile race, a furlong more than the Dixie, is being targeted by the seven-year-olds' owner and trainer Jonathan Sheppard. Just as Well finished second in last year's Arlington Million, on a yielding turf course, as a 19-1 longshot behind 3-2 favorite Gio Ponti.

Gio Ponti would go on be win Eclipse Awards as champion turf male and older male thoroughbred.

Ridden by E.T. Baird in the Million, Just as Well had an awkward start and was last in the eight horse field. His rally came up 1 1/4-lengths shy of catching the winner.

"He was tracking the winner (Gio Ponti) around the last turn," Sheppard noted following the 2009 Million, "but then Einstein weakened and dropped in front of him, which broke his stride slightly. I'm not saying he would have won, but he would have made it closer."

The 1 1/8-mile Dixie proved to be a little short too in distance for Just as Well.

"I thought he ran great," Sheppard noted after Saturday's race. "Julien (jockey Leparoux) gave him a good ride and we just got beat by a better horse on the day. Probably a little more distance wouldn't hurt him, but he ran well. He's back where he was, that's the main thing. We're happy."

Just as Well was second in last year's Dixie before winning the 1 1/4-mile Arlington Handicap. Strike A Deal, 14-1 at post-time, won the 2010 Dixie by less than a length over Just as Well.

Sheppard's horse has won five of 23 career starts with five second-place finishes for $1.1 million.

After the 2009 Million, Just as Well was sent up to Woodbine for a pair of starts. He was second to Marsh Side in the Northern Dancer, but was a disappointing fifth in the Canadian International to Champs Elysees. He concluded the year in the Japan Cup in Tokyo, finishing seventh.

His first start in 2010 was in the Ben Ali at Keeneland. The 1 1/8-mile race on Keeneland's artificial main track was used as a tightener. Just as Well was fourth to Dubious Miss, beaten by 6 1/2-lengths.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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