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09/20/2007 - Hangzhou, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pretinha scored in extra time as Brazil edged Denmark, 1-0, on Thursday to finish a perfect run through Group D.
The Brazilians were the lone team to win all three games in the group stage and didn't allow a goal. Brazil plays Australia in the quarterfinals Sunday.
Denmark ended a disappointing World Cup by failing to advance to the knockout round. Denmark made the quarterfinals in the first two World Cups, but was eliminated after group play in 1999 and didn't qualify in 2003.
Denmark created the first strong scoring opportunity in the eighth minute when Maiken Pape headed a cross toward the right side of the net that forced Brazil goalie Andreia to make a spectacular diving save.
Brazil answered with a strong chance in the 14th minute, but after Christiane got free in the box she curled a shot wide of the left post.
The Brazilians started to gain control after Christiane's miss, but could only manage long shots from well outside the box. Marta, Formiga and Christiane all had long shots sail off target.
Marta created another dangerous chance for Brazil when she streaked to the end line before putting a shot off the post. The ball bounced off the bar and just narrowly missed deflecting off Denmark goalie Heidi Johansen and possibly into the goal.
Denmark settled for quick attacks while Brazil controlled possession, but got more dangerous chances.
In the 38th minute off a corner kick, captain Katrine Pedersen ran onto a ball on the right side of the box and sent a header toward the far post that had to be cleared by a Brazilian defender.
Another corner in the 41st minute gave Denmark a look on goal, but after the ball rattled around the box, just missing the feet of numerous players, it was cleared by Brazil.
Brazil had a few more chances late in the first half, but instead of settling for long shots decided to send balls into the box through the air. The change didn't work out as Denmark's defense played all the chances well, winning the balls in the air to avoid giving up shots or rebounds in the box.
Marta opened the second half still searching for her fifth goal of the event, but a nice left-footed blast from the top of the box was pushed over the bar by Johansen in the 49th minute.
After China took the lead in its game against New Zealand - being played at the same time in Tianjin - Denmark made two switches in the 65th minute to try and get the win it needed to advance.
But Brazil was the team that continued to create the chances, and Marta was in the mix again. She drove a shot from just inside the box at the lower right of the net, but Johansen dove to touch it wide in the 68th minute.
Denmark substitutes weren't quiet, though, as Johanna Rasmussen struck a hard shot past Andreia but just wide of the right post in the 72nd minute.
However, the chance didn't slow down Brazil. Maycon answered with a run down the left side into the box. She got behind two defenders, but her cross rolled harmlessly across the front of the goal with Pretinha running on but unable to get a foot to the ball.
Denmark called upon its final weapon off the bench in the 79th minute, putting all-time leading scorer Merete Pedersen onto the field.
Denmark had a few chances in the following minutes, but the best one was from Katrine Pedersen. She struck a long free kick into the box, but Andreia got to the ball and covered it up at the left post.
Andreia made another fine save in the 80th minute, punching a shot away.
Denmark had just one chance the rest of the way, a wasted free kick from 24 yards, as Brazil had chances from Daniela and Marta from just a few yards out denied before Pretinha scored the winner.
Elaine set up the goal with a long pass into the box to Pretinha. She touched the ball over a charging Johansen for the game winner.
Not only did Denmark fail to advance to the quarterfinals, it lost a spot in the Olympics with the loss. The top three European teams in the World Cup got automatic berths in the Olympics.
Denmark coach Kenneth Heiner-Moller missed the game, serving the second game of a two-game ban for making contact with an official after the team's first game of the tournament.
<< Roddick will open for U.S. against Sweden
Gothenburg, Sweden (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When the 2007 Davis Cup semifinal
between the United States and host Sweden gets underway on Friday, the opening
singles rubber will pit former world No. 1 Andy Roddick against Joachim
Johanss
<< Florida State freshman hospitalized with neck injury
Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Florida State freshman offensive lineman
Antwane Greenlee was admitted to Tallahassee Memorial Hospital Wednesday night
with a cervical neck injury.
The injury was not a fracture, however, and Greenlee d
<< Andreev-Haas will kickoff Russia-Germany Davis Cup semi
Moscow, Russia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Igor Andreev will battle Tommy Haas in the
first of Friday's singles rubbers in the 2007 Davis Cup World Group semifinal
between host Russia and visiting Germany.
The best-of-five tie will be staged in
<< Oh no, Canada! Aussies advance on late equalizer
Chengdu, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cheryl Salisbury put Australia in the
quarterfinals for the first time in the team's history as she scored a
dramatic equalizer in the 90th minute to earn a 2-2 draw with Canada.
Trailing by
Rangers, Orioles open set in Texas >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Right-hander Brandon McCarthy seeks his first win since
July 31 tonight when the Texas Rangers open a four-game series against the
visiting Baltimore Orioles at Rangers Ball Park at Arlington.
McCarthy, who missed time in
Angels continue march towards AL West crown against Mariners >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim can move one step closer
towards securing a third American League West title in four years with a
victory tonight against the Seattle Mariners.
The Angels enter this four-game set with Sea
Cardinals set to play host to Astros >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Right-hander Braden Looper makes his fourth career start
against the Houston Astros tonight when the St. Louis Cardinals begin a four-
game series with Houston at Busch Stadium.
Looper, a career relief pitcher before this
Milwaukee tries to rebound in Atlanta >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Brewers will attempt to rebound from
Wednesday's potentially costly loss when the postseason hopefuls begin a four-
game series with the host Atlanta Braves tonight at Turner Field.
The Brewers fell out of a
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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