Sixers hope lightning strikes twice with Thorn, Stefanski

Basketball Betting Lines

08/13/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The expression "lightning never strikes twice" is often used to describe a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Of course, science tells us that lightning strikes occur frequently in specific areas and, although rare, repeat strikes occur.

The Philadelphia 76ers are counting on that.

To be blunt, Ed Stefanski probably should have joined his hand-picked coach Eddie Jordan on the unemployment line after last year's disastrous Sixers season. But, the Comcast-Spectacor braintrust of Ed Snider and Peter Luukko, loathe to admit another in a long line of mistakes, gave the embattled Philadelphia basketball chief one more chance.

This time, with the leash pulled tight in the form of assistant general manager Tony DiLeo and consultant Gene Shue watching over his shoulder, Stefanski made a prudent decision and inked the highly regarded Doug Collins to be the team's mentor in 2010-11.

The hire happened a year after it should have and cost the Sixers dearly in the crowded, very competitive Philadelphia sports market, but Stefanski was finally moving the team in the right direction again. Dealing underachieving center Samuel Dalembert to Sacramento for Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni, and landing Evan Turner after lucking out a bit in the NBA Draft Lottery also were regarded as feathers in Stefanski's cap.

That said, you could still sense the Sixers' brass wasn't all that comfortable with Stefanski leading the organization.

That sentiment came into focus on Thursday when Snider and Luukko named Stefanski's old boss in New Jersey. Rod Thorn, as the team's new president.

"We felt with the direction we are now heading that it was important for us to have two very strong basketball minds leading the Philadelphia 76ers," Luukko said. "We are building a strong organization and we're off to a terrific start with the addition of coach Doug Collins, the best available coach, and Evan Turner, who we feel was the best available player in the draft. Now we have added another top-level executive to help lead us into the future."

Thorn, an NBA veteran of more than four decades, spent the past 10 seasons as president of the New Jersey Nets. He was the 2001-02 NBA Executive of the Year and guided the Nets to a pair of Eastern Conference crowns in 2002 and 2003 as well as four Atlantic Division titles before stepping down last month.

"Over my time with the Nets, most of it was great," Thorn said. "The last few years we dismantled the team, on purpose, because of a corporate decision and that wasn't much fun. My feeling is, that time had run its course there."

Stefanski worked under Thorn in New Jersey for nine seasons, moving up from director of scouting to general manager, and was instrumental in the 2004 blockbuster transaction that brought All-Star Vince Carter to the Nets in exchange for a banged-up Alonzo Mourning and assorted flotsam.

Thorn himself engineered two major deals in June of 2001 that set the Nets up for success, trading the team's first pick in the 2001 NBA Draft (Eddie Griffin) to the Houston Rockets for their three first-round picks, one of which turned out to be Richard Jefferson. A day later, he negotiated a major six-player blockbuster trade with the Phoenix Suns that landed New Jersey Jason Kidd in exchange for Stephon Marbury.

"Rod is one of the most respected basketball minds in the game today," Snider said. "When we learned that he would not be re-signing with the Nets, we realized that this would be a terrific opportunity to bring one of the top executives in the NBA to the Sixers to work closely with Ed Stefanski. I'm really pleased to be adding him to our organization. I'm confident that Rod will be a tremendous asset for our team."

It's clear Stefanski excelled under Thorn's auspices before, but the situation is a bit different this time. No matter how you spin it Stefanski, who had served as the Sixers' president and general manager since December of 2007, was demoted on Thursday and called the decision surprising at first.

"My pity party lasted for about a half hour, then I was fine after that," Stefanski said.

Thorn, who made his NBA bones as the general manager in Chicago from 1978-1985 when he selected Michael Jordan third overall in the '84 draft, was quick to temper any possible dissension.

"Some say that when Ed left, the Nets weren't as good after that," Thorn said. "I have a lot of respect for Ed, both on a professional and personal level. And I look forward to working very closely with him as we go forward. He understands me, and I think I understand him. We make a good team, and hopefully that will take effect and be something we can all be proud of here."

Whether a Thorn-Stefanski sequel ends up doing similar business 90 miles down the Jersey Turnpike will likely depend on Stefanski's ability to swallow his pride and handle a rather significant blow to his ego.

"Rod is my mentor in the NBA," Stefanski said. "He taught me a lot of things about the NBA and we are close friends. I know Rod, he knows me. We work extremely well together. I think we were a hell of a team in New Jersey and I think the results showed that. There is no reason to say that we are not going to do the same thing here."

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Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament odds  
As of February 9, MySportsbook.com has released its coveted 2007 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament betting odds. “March Madness betting ” only a month away, the top ranked Florida Gators are favorite at 7-2 to win it all. The defending champs have not disappointed at all this season and currently have a 22-2 record and are undefeated (9-0) in SEC play. The Gators’ thrive off of their extremely balanced, experienced and versatile attack. All five starters started in last seasons National Championship game. What is most impressive with this group is their balance; the five starters all average between 10.7 and 13.6 PPG. The Gators have been on an absolute roll having won 15 straight by an average of 16.4 PPG.

Right behind the Gators are the 5th ranked UNC Tar Heels at 9-2. The Heels (21-3, 7-2) are absolutely loaded with top notch talent and are as deep as any team in the country. A concern for the Tar Heels might be inexperience. Of their top four scorers/ minute earners, three are freshmen and the other is a sophomore. The rest of the regular season, the Tar Heels play only one team that is currently ranked (Duke). Their remaining opponents do combine for an impressive 107-58 record though.

Other teams that the MySportsbook.com members seem to believe will win it all include the west coasts’ top team #2 UCLA (6-1), #3 OSU behind man-child Greg Oden (8-1), and #4 Wisconsin (10-1) behind their defense which has given up 70+ points only three times all season.

Below is a list of some of the favorites to win the 2007 Men’s NCAA Basketball Championship lines. For the full list of teams and March Madness odds be sure to log onto MySportsbook.com. If you want to use your credit card to bet on college hoops or any other event, MySportsbook.com has the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry.

Arizona 20-1

Butler 20-1

Duke 30-1

Florida 7-2

Georgetown 30-1

Indiana 35-1

Kansas 15-1

Marquette 25-1

Maryland 40-1

Memphis 50-1

Nevada 50-1

UNC 9-2

OSU 8-1

Oregon 30-1

Pittsburgh 15-1

Texas 30-1

Texas A&M 18-1

UCLA 6-1

Wisconsin 10-1

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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